Election Day!

Tuesday is the day!  Polls across California are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and by the time they close, voters will have started to settle three big questions at once:  which party runs the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years, who replaces Gavin Newsom as governor, and whether 14 statewide propositions become law, from a one-time tax on billionaires to a voter ID requirement.

In Santa Clara County, the ballot keeps going:  a regional sales tax to keep BART, Caltrain and VTA running, three San Jose City Council runoffs, school bonds and parcel taxes, and a stack of city measures from Palo Alto to Gilroy.

Here is a guide to all of it, national first, then California, then home.  If you still have a ballot on the kitchen counter, the practical details on how to return it are at the bottom, and our map of every drop box and vote center in the county shows the closest one.

The big picture:  why this election matters

Every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for election, along with about a third of the 100-seat Senate.  Elections held halfway through a president's four-year term are called midterms, and they have a strong pattern:  the president's party almost always loses ground.

Since 1934, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only three times, in 1934, 1998 and 2002, according to a table kept by the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.  In President Donald Trump's first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 41 House seats.  In 2022, under President Joe Biden, Democrats lost nine.

This year, Republicans are defending majorities in both chambers with a president whose approval rating is low.  Trump's approval stood at 37.3% in the Silver Bulletin polling average updated Oct. 30, with about 60% disapproving.  On the "generic ballot," a poll question that asks people which party they want to control Congress without naming candidates, Democrats led by 8.9 percentage points in the Silver Bulletin average as of Oct. 30.

The House:  Democrats need a net gain of about three seats

Right now, Republicans control the House with 218 seats to Democrats' 214, plus one independent and two vacant seats, according to the Office of the Clerk of the House.  A party needs 218 seats for a majority.  Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter that counts the vacant seats by the party that last held them, puts the split at 220-215 and says Democrats need a net gain of three.

Three nonpartisan forecasters that rate every race publish what they think will happen.  They are sometimes called "handicappers," like the people who set odds on horse races.  As of their latest updates, all three expect Democrats to win the House, and a leading forecast model agrees:

• Cook Political Report (Oct. 30):  222 seats at least leaning Democratic, 195 at least leaning Republican, 18 toss-ups.  Cook projects Democrats will gain 12 to 25 seats.
• Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia Center for Politics (Oct. 27):  225 seats at least leaning Democratic, 193 at least leaning Republican, 17 toss-ups.
• Inside Elections (Oct. 29):  projects Democrats gaining 20 to 30 seats.
• Silver Bulletin forecast (Nov. 1):  a statistical model, not a race-by-race rating, it gives Democrats about a 95% chance of winning the House, with an average net gain of about 25 seats.

Cook's 18 toss-ups, the races it considers a coin flip, are spread around the country:  California's 22nd District in the Central Valley, held by Republican David Valadao; Colorado's 5th; Florida's 14th and 22nd; Iowa's 2nd; Kentucky's 6th; Michigan's 4th, 7th and 10th; Montana's 1st; New York's 17th, held by Republican Mike Lawler; North Carolina's 1st; Ohio's 7th; Pennsylvania's 1st, held by Republican Brian Fitzpatrick; South Carolina's 1st; Texas' 15th and 35th; and Virginia's 1st.

The Senate:  Democrats need a net gain of four

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47.  The 47 include independents who vote with Democrats.  Thirty-five seats are on the ballot this year, 22 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats, according to Cook's ratings.  A 50-50 tie would leave Republicans in charge, because Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes, so Democrats need to gain four seats to win a 51-seat majority.

That once looked like a long shot.  It does not anymore.  In its Oct. 30 update, Cook said it expects Democrats to gain two to six seats.  Inside Elections projects a Democratic gain of four to six (Oct. 29).  Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of Oct. 30, had 49 seats at least leaning Democratic, 46 at least leaning Republican and five toss-ups.  Silver Bulletin's Nov. 1 forecast gives Democrats "a meaningful edge" for the Senate.

Cook lists seven Senate races as toss-ups, six of them held by Republicans.  The final polls from the Siena College Research Institute, conducted for The New York Times and released Sunday, Nov. 1, give a sense of where they stand.  Each has a margin of error of roughly 3.4 to 5 points, so a lead smaller than that is not a sure thing.

• Texas (open, Republican-held):  Democrat James Talarico 50%, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 43%.
• Michigan (open, Democratic-held):  Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 53%, Republican Mike Rogers 42%.
• Maine:  Democrat Troy Jackson 51%, Republican Sen. Susan Collins 45%.
• Ohio:  Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator, 49%, Republican Sen. Jon Husted 44%.
• Kansas:  Democrat Adam Hamilton 49%, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 44%, a Libertarian candidate, Graham, 4%.
• Alaska:  Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, 48%, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 46%.
• Iowa (open, Republican-held):  Democrat Josh Turek 48%, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 47%.

Cook rates Democratic-held Georgia (Sen. Jon Ossoff) and the open, Republican-held seat in North Carolina as likely Democratic, and the open Democratic seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire as leaning Democratic.  Republicans' best remaining defenses, by Cook's ratings, are Nebraska and South Carolina (lean Republican) and Florida and Mississippi (likely Republican).

Governors:  36 races, including some close ones

Thirty-six states elect governors this year.  Sabato's Crystal Ball projected Oct. 27 that after the election Democrats would hold 26 governorships, Republicans 22, with two toss-ups.  Siena's Nov. 1 polls showed two especially close races:  Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott had 47% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 48%, and Kansas, where Democrat Cindy Holscher had 48% to Republican Ty Masterson's 47%.  In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49% to 43%.

What voters say they care about

In surveys this fall, the economy and prices came first.  A Pew Research Center survey (Sept. 28 to Oct. 4) found 84% of registered voters called the economy very important to their vote, far ahead of other issues.  A Gallup survey (Oct. 1 to 19) found half of voters rated the economy and health care "extremely important," followed closely by the war with Iran (47%), the gap between rich and poor (44%), gas prices (42%) and immigration (40%).

Gas prices are on the list for a reason.  The Cook Political Report called the Iran war and the jump in gas and diesel prices "a key turning point" in the Senate fight.

Artificial intelligence, a big story here in Silicon Valley, ranks lower nationally.  Pew found 44% of voters called AI very important to their vote.  But building AI data centers is unpopular:  61% of voters told Pew they dislike political leaders who support building data centers near them, and 30% told Gallup the issue is extremely important to their vote.

The parties are not equally fired up, either.  In California, 71% of Democratic likely voters told the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group known as PPIC, that they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting for Congress, compared with 46% of Republicans.

Redistricting:  new lines in California and Texas

Congressional district lines are usually redrawn once every 10 years, after the census.  This decade broke that pattern.  After Texas Republicans redrew their state's districts in the middle of the decade to favor their party, California Democrats answered with Proposition 50 in November 2025.  It replaced the maps drawn by California's independent redistricting commission with maps drawn by the Legislature, for elections through 2030.  Voters approved it with 64.4% of the vote, according to the Secretary of State's official results.  The commission resumes drawing the maps in 2031.

That is why some of the Bay Area's district numbers and borders look different on this ballot.

How many people have already voted

Early voting is running strong.  As of Sunday night, Nov. 1, more than 54.4 million Americans had voted early in 49 states, about 30.2 million in person and 24.4 million by mail, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

In California, about 5.97 million of the 23.45 million ballots mailed to voters had come back by then, the Election Lab reported.  That is a little more than half of the 11.15 million Californians who voted in 2022.

When we'll know:  be patient, especially in California

East Coast results will start arriving Tuesday afternoon, Pacific time, and control of Congress could be clear by late Tuesday night, or not for days if the races are as close as the polls suggest.

California counts slowly by design.  Mailed ballots count as long as they are postmarked by Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, and arrive by Nov. 10, seven days later, according to the Secretary of State.  Counties start posting results at 8 p.m. and update at least every two hours on election night, but they keep counting for weeks.  They have until Dec. 3 to certify their results, and the Secretary of State certifies the statewide results on Dec. 11.  Close California races, including House seats, can take a week or more to call.

California governor:  an open seat

Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, cannot run again because of term limits.  The two candidates who finished first and second in the June primary face off Tuesday.  California uses a "top-two" primary, in which all candidates run on one ballot and the two top finishers advance, regardless of party.

Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, served 24 years in Congress representing Los Angeles, then was California's attorney general and U.S. health and human services secretary under Biden.  Steve Hilton, a Republican, is a former Fox News host and a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron.

Polls show Becerra well ahead.  PPIC's survey (Oct. 16 to 22) had Becerra at 61% and Hilton at 37% among likely voters.  The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll (Oct. 19 to 25) found 61% to 34%.

The rest of the statewide ballot

Californians also choose seven other statewide officers.  The candidates, from the Secretary of State's official voter guide:

• Lieutenant governor:  Fiona Ma (D), now state treasurer, vs. Gloria Romero (R), a former state senator.
• Secretary of state (runs elections):  Shirley Weber (D), the incumbent, vs. Don Wagner (R).
• Attorney general:  Rob Bonta (D), the incumbent, vs. Michael Gates (R).
• Treasurer:  Eleni Kounalakis (D), now lieutenant governor, vs. Jennifer Hawks (R).
• Controller (the state's chief financial officer):  Malia Cohen (D), the incumbent, vs. Herb Morgan (R).
• Insurance commissioner:  two Democrats, state Sen. Ben Allen and Jane Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor.
• Superintendent of public instruction (nonpartisan):  Richard Barrera vs. Sonja Shaw.
• Board of Equalization, District 2 (a tax board; covers San Jose):  Sally Lieber, the incumbent, vs. John Pimentel.

Voters also decide whether to keep two state Supreme Court justices, Kelli Evans and Joshua Groban, and five justices of the Sixth District Court of Appeal, which hears appeals from Santa Clara County and nearby counties.  Those are yes-or-no "retention" votes, with no opponent.  There is no U.S. Senate race in California this year.

The 14 propositions, at a glance

California voters face 14 statewide measures.  Each summary below comes from the Secretary of State's official voter guide, which includes analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office.  Supporters and opponents are the ones listed in the guide.  Poll numbers, where available, are from PPIC's October survey of likely voters.

A quick vocabulary note:  a bond is a loan the state repays with interest over decades.  A constitutional amendment changes the state Constitution and can only be undone by another vote of the people.

• Prop. 1:  $11.25 billion housing bond.  YES lets the state borrow $11.25 billion for affordable rental housing, veterans' mortgages, supportive housing and down-payment help.  NO means no new borrowing.  Cost:  $500 million to $600 million a year for about 25 years.  For:  U.S. Vets, California Federation of Teachers, Habitat for Humanity California.  Against:  no argument submitted.  PPIC:  majority support.
• Prop. 2:  Bigger rainy day fund.  YES raises the cap on the state's emergency savings account and changes debt-payment rules.  NO keeps current rules.  For:  California Professional Firefighters, Newsom, Becerra.  Against:  the ballot argument says it creates a loophole in the state spending limit that makes taxpayer rebates less likely; no organizations are listed.  PPIC:  majority support.
• Prop. 3:  Make the high-earner income tax permanent.  YES makes permanent a tax increase on income above about $371,000 a year that voters approved in 2012; it would otherwise end in 2031.  It keeps $5 billion to $15 billion a year flowing, mostly to schools.  For:  California Teachers Association, California State PTA.  Against:  California Taxpayers Association, California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce.  PPIC:  majority support.
• Prop. 4:  Allow public money for campaigns.  YES repeals California's ban on public financing of political campaigns, letting the state and cities create such programs.  For:  League of Women Voters of California, California Nurses Association.  Against:  California Taxpayers Association, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
• Prop. 5:  Change how recalls work.  YES removes the second question on recall ballots, about who should replace the official; vacancies would be filled by a later special election or appointment.  NO keeps the replacement question.  The guide lists no official supporters or opponents; the pro argument cites endorsements from the League of Women Voters and California Common Cause.
• Prop. 37:  $25 billion in home loans for middle-income buyers.  YES lets the state sell up to $25 billion in bonds to lend buyers up to 17% of the price of a newly built home under about $1.5 million.  Borrowers repay the bonds, not taxpayers.  For:  United Nurses Associations of California, California Conference of Carpenters, state Treasurer Fiona Ma.  Against:  none submitted.  PPIC:  more than 60% yes.
• Prop. 38:  $8.4 billion immunology research bond.  YES borrows $8.4 billion for research on the immune system and treatments that use it, half to a single University of California-affiliated institute.  Cost:  $500 million to $600 million a year for about 20 years.  For:  Michael J. Fox Foundation.  Against:  Robert M. Kaplan, Ph.D.  PPIC:  57% yes.
• Prop. 39:  Voter ID.  YES requires voters to show government ID in person and to write the last four digits of an ID number on mail-ballot envelopes, or the ballot is rejected.  NO keeps signature matching.  Cost:  tens of millions to low hundreds of millions of dollars a year.  For:  The Transparency Foundation, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.  Against:  ACLU California Action, Common Cause, League of Women Voters.  PPIC:  nearly 60% oppose.
• Prop. 40:  One-time billionaire tax.  YES imposes a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of people with more than $1 billion in assets, mostly for health care.  The analyst estimates tens of billions of dollars over several years.  For:  U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, SEIU United Healthcare Workers West.  Against:  California Primary Care Association, California School Boards Association, California Taxpayers Association; the ballot argument against also names the California Teachers Association and California Medical Association.  PPIC:  46% yes, down from 52% in its previous survey.
• Prop. 41:  Audits and limits on new taxes.  YES voids state taxes passed after Jan. 1, 2026, that are exempt from the state spending limit and requires the state auditor to review programs paid for by new special taxes.  Opponents say it is aimed at undoing Prop. 40.  For:  California Society of CPAs, California Taxpayers Association.  Against:  Sanders, SEIU-UHW.
• Prop. 42:  Ban new taxes on personal property.  YES bans new state taxes on owning things other than real estate, such as savings and stocks, and retroactive taxes, and voids conflicting taxes passed after Jan. 1, 2026.  Opponents say it, too, targets Prop. 40.  For:  California Professional Firefighters, State Building and Construction Trades Council.  Against:  Sanders, SEIU-UHW.
• Prop. 43:  Two-thirds vote for citizen-proposed local taxes.  YES raises the vote needed to pass local special taxes put on the ballot by petition from a simple majority to two-thirds, starting Jan. 1, 2027.  For:  California Taxpayers Association.  Against:  California Professional Firefighters, California Federation of Teachers, SEIU Nurse Alliance.  PPIC:  a majority oppose.
• Prop. 44:  Spending rule for community clinics.  YES requires nonprofit community health centers that serve low-income areas to spend at least 90% of revenue on patient care and related programs, or face penalties.  For:  none submitted.  Against:  American Academy of Pediatrics California, California Medical Association.
• Prop. 45:  Speed up environmental review.  YES sets deadlines for reviews under the California Environmental Quality Act, the state's main environmental law, for most housing, transportation, water and health projects, and narrows what courts can consider in lawsuits.  For:  California Children's Hospital Association, California Water Association.  Against:  Coalition for Clean Air, California Environmental Voters.  PPIC:  50% no, 46% yes.

One thing to watch:  Props. 41 and 42 could cancel Prop. 40 even if it passes.  Under the state Constitution, when two approved measures conflict, the one with more yes votes generally prevails, both would void state taxes passed after Jan. 1, 2026.

Bay Area and San Jose races for Congress

San Jose is split among four congressional districts, all held by Democrats.  None is on Cook's list of competitive races.  The candidates, from the certified lists:

• 16th District:  Rep. Sam Liccardo, a former San Jose mayor, vs. Peter Sundin Soulé.
• 17th District:  Rep. Ro Khanna vs. Ritesh Tandon.
• 18th District:  Rep. Zoe Lofgren vs. Shane Lewis.
• 19th District:  Rep. Jimmy Panetta vs. Peter Coe Verbica.

Elsewhere in California, the races Cook is watching include the Central Valley's 22nd District (toss-up), the open 48th District in Southern California (lean Democratic), and the 13th and 45th districts, held by Democrats Adam Gray and Derek Tran (likely Democratic).

State Legislature

San Jose-area voters, depending on where they live, see one of these state Senate or Assembly races:

• Senate District 10:  Linda R. Price vs. Scott Sakakihara.
• Assembly District 23:  Marc Berman vs. David G. Johnson.
• Assembly District 24:  Alex Lee vs. Max Hsia.
• Assembly District 25:  Ash Kalra vs. Himat Singh Bainiwal.
• Assembly District 26:  Patrick Ahrens vs. Tim Gorsulowsky.
• Assembly District 28:  Gail Pellerin vs. Carol Pefley.

San Jose City Council runoffs

Three council seats are on the ballot in districts where no one won a majority in June.  Only voters who live in those districts will see them:

• District 5 (East San Jose):  Councilmember Peter Ortiz vs. Nora Campos, a former council member and state Assembly member.
• District 7:  Councilmember Bien Doan vs. Van Le, an East Side Union High School District trustee.
• District 9:  Genny Altwer vs. Gordon Chester.

The big local measure:  a transit tax

Measure RTM, the Connect Bay Area transit measure, is on the ballot across five counties:  Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and San Francisco.  It would add a half-cent sales tax in Santa Clara County (one cent in San Francisco) for 14 years, raising about $980 million a year regionwide for BART, Caltrain, VTA and other transit agencies.  The regional measure was created by a 2025 state law, SB 63.  In Santa Clara County, 84.37% of the local money would go to the Valley Transportation Authority, according to the measure summary published by California Choices.  It needs a simple majority.

Supporters say that without it BART could close 15 stations and Caltrain could cut service.  Opponents, in the No New Transit Tax campaign, call it a "$14 billion-dollar bailout" and say it would push the county's sales tax rate above 10%.

City and school measures around the county

There is no citywide San Jose measure this year, according to California Choices and VoterDecoder, two nonpartisan guides that track the county's ballot.  But depending on your address, you may see one of these:

• Measure A, Morgan Hill:  let the city manager appoint the city treasurer instead of electing one.
• Measure B, Gilroy:  raise the hotel tax from 9% to up to 13%, about $700,000 a year.
• Measure C, Santa Clara:  change charter rules for public works contracts, including a $250,000 threshold and allowing "best value" contracting.
• Measure D, Los Altos:  bar the city from selling or redeveloping its 10 downtown parking plazas without a public vote, except two set aside for affordable housing.
• Measure E, Mountain View:  update the city charter's wording and procedures.
• Measure F, Mountain View:  allow the hotel tax to rise from 10% to up to 15%, about $5.2 million a year.
• Measures G, H and I, Sunnyvale:  three charter changes, on public works contracting, the city manager's authority to settle legal claims, and how long an appointed council member serves.
• Measure J, Palo Alto:  a half-cent sales tax for city services, including the Cubberley Community Center, about $15.6 million a year.
• Measure K, Milpitas:  update the city's business tax, raising about $3 million a year.
• Measure L, Cupertino:  require a two-thirds public vote before parks and open space can be rezoned or developed.
• Measure M, Gilroy Unified:  $295 million school bond (55% needed).
• Measure N, Los Gatos-Saratoga high schools:  $321 million school bond (55% needed).
• Measure O, Alum Rock elementary schools (East San Jose):  replace an existing parcel tax with a $310-a-year tax for seven years, about $6.5 million a year (two-thirds needed).
• Measure P, Alum Rock:  $100 million school repair bond, which the district says will not raise current tax rates (55% needed).
• Measure Q, Cambrian School District:  $148-a-year parcel tax for eight years, about $1 million a year (two-thirds needed).
• Measure R, Orchard School District (North San Jose):  parcel tax of 4 cents per building square foot, capped at $89 for homes, about $1.4 million a year (two-thirds needed).
• Measure S, El Camino Healthcare District:  limit board members to four four-year terms.

How to vote by Tuesday, Nov. 3

• Polls and vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3.  If you are in line by 8, you can vote.  Before then, most Santa Clara County vote centers are open 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. through Monday, Nov. 2, according to the Secretary of State's early voting locator.
• Santa Clara County uses vote centers.  You can vote at any vote center in the county, not just one assigned to you.  Our drop box and vote center map lists every one.
• Missed the registration deadline?  You can still register and vote through 8 p.m. Tuesday at a vote center using same-day registration, which state law calls conditional voter registration.  Your ballot is counted once the county confirms your registration.
• Returning a mail ballot:  sign the envelope.  The county's 111 drop boxes accept ballots until 8 p.m. Tuesday.  If you mail it, it must be postmarked by Tuesday, Nov. 3; the Secretary of State advises getting a hand-stamped postmark from a clerk inside a post office.  Mailed ballots must arrive by Nov. 10.
• Track your ballot:  sign up at Where's My Ballot for text, email or phone alerts when your ballot is received and counted.
• Questions:  the Secretary of State's voter hotline is (800) 345-VOTE (8683).

Results start posting after 8 p.m. Tuesday.  We will keep following the count in the days ahead.

Source:  California Secretary of State voter guide, key dates, vote-by-mail pages and early voting locator; Legislative Analyst's Office analyses in the voter guide; Office of the Clerk, U.S. House; Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections ratings (dates noted); Silver Bulletin polling averages and forecast; Siena College Research Institute; PPIC; UC Berkeley IGS; Pew Research Center; Gallup; University of Florida Election Lab; American Presidency Project; California Choices; VoterDecoder.