Holiday discounts are forecast to peak Nov. 26 to 30. A guide to what to buy when, and how to shop safely

SAN JOSE - The deepest online discounts of the holiday season are expected during Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving, Nov. 26, through Cyber Monday, Nov. 30, at up to 30% off list price, San Jose-based Adobe forecasts. Adobe expects discounts of up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and 10% to 15% through December.

Black Friday is Nov. 27, but the big chains have stretched it into weeks of sales, and most now offer price guarantees and long return windows that make buying early less risky. The National Retail Federation, the industry’s largest trade group, forecasts that November and December retail sales will rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Adobe expects $275.1 billion of that to be spent online. This guide covers the 2026 sale calendar, when to buy what, how to get the lowest price, and how to avoid scams and risky shopping software, from now through January.

The 2026 calendar

• Now through Dec. 24: Target posts a new Deal of the Day daily and matches its own lower prices on purchases made since Nov. 1.
• Nov. 12 to 15: Walmart’s Early Black Friday Deals, online at 12:01 a.m. Eastern (9:01 p.m. Pacific the night before) and in stores at 6 a.m. Paid Walmart+ members get first pick of some deals for 24 hours.
• Nov. 19 to 30: Amazon’s Black Friday Week and Cyber Monday events, starting at 12:01 a.m. Pacific Nov. 19, with themed daily deals and two deal drops, at midnight and 8 a.m. Pacific, on both Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• Nov. 19 to 28: Best Buy’s 10 days of Black Friday doorbusters, the deeply discounted, limited-stock items meant to draw crowds. Best Buy has dropped new deals every Friday since Nov. 6.
• Nov. 23 to 29: Walmart’s Black Friday Deals online, with in-store deals starting at 6 a.m. Black Friday.
• Thursday, Nov. 26, Thanksgiving: Target, Best Buy and Costco stores are closed; online sales go on. Adobe expects $6.9 billion in online spending that day, 63% of it on phones.
• Friday, Nov. 27, Black Friday: Target opens at 6 a.m., the same time Walmart’s in-store deals start.
• **Saturday, Nov. 28, Small Business Saturday:** a day to shop at independent stores, started by American Express in 2010 and cosponsored by the U.S. Small Business Administration since 2011.
• Monday, Nov. 30, Cyber Monday: Adobe expects it to be the season’s biggest online day, at $15.1 billion. Walmart’s online Cyber Monday sale runs through Dec. 2.
• **Tuesday, Dec. 1, GivingTuesday:** a day for charitable giving. Scammers set up fake charities at this time of year, so give through a charity’s own website.
• Dec. 1 to 6: Best Buy’s Cyber Week Deals.
• Dec. 18 to 24: Best Buy’s Last-Minute Savings Event. Target stores close by 8 p.m. Christmas Eve, and Target and Costco are closed Christmas Day.
• Jan. 8 to Jan. 31, 2027: Extended holiday return deadlines run out at the big chains (see Returns, below).

Photo: Shoppers stream into a Target store in Washington, D.C., at 6:27 a.m. on Black Friday 2008 Gridprop / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

What to buy when

Adobe’s forecast names the best online day for each major category, with the expected peak discount off list price:

• Electronics: Cyber Monday, up to 30% off.
• Computers: Cyber Monday, up to 23%.
• Toys: Black Friday, up to 29%.
• TVs: Black Friday, up to 23%.
• Clothing: Black Friday, up to 23%.
• Appliances: Black Friday, up to 18%.
• Furniture: Black Friday, up to 18%.
• Sporting goods: Thanksgiving, up to 19%.

Those are averages across millions of products. The one item you want can hit its low on a different day, so check its price history first (see below). More on specific purchases:

• TVs: Some Black Friday sets are “derivatives”: versions of regular models with different model numbers, often sold at one retailer and with fewer features, such as fewer HDMI ports or a simpler remote. Consumer Reports’ testing has found that some perform as well as the sets they copy. But a one-store model number can’t be price-compared or price-matched, so search the exact model number before buying. If you miss Black Friday, Consumer Reports’ past price analysis found TV prices climbed in early January, then fell back near Black Friday levels in sales before the Super Bowl in early February.
• Game consoles and hot toys: Adobe expects the Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, plus games such as Grand Theft Auto VI, to be top sellers. Popular gifts can sell out, so if you see a fair price on a must-have, buy it at a store with a holiday price guarantee and claim any later drop.
• Phones: Contract phones are excluded from Target’s and Best Buy’s price guarantees, and Target’s return deadline for phones and Apple products is earlier, Jan. 8.
• Everyday basics: Adobe expects Cyber Week sales of clothing basics to triple and personal-care items to more than double compared with September, as shoppers use deals to stock up on things they buy anyway.
• Holiday flights: Google Flights’ five-year data show Christmas fares hit their lowest about 56 days before departure, with a low-price range of 33 to 67 days out. For Christmas Day travel, that range ends about Nov. 22, so book soon. Thanksgiving’s low-price range has already passed. Departing on a Monday and returning on a Tuesday or Wednesday saves about 14% over weekend flights, and connecting flights cost about 20% less than nonstops. The day of the week you book barely matters, about 1.4%. For spring break, the low point is about 50 days before departure, or January and early February for March trips.
• Cars: New-car prices typically peak in December, but so do deals. Kelley Blue Book estimates put December 2025 incentives at 7.5% of the average sale price, the highest of the year, and electric-vehicle incentives at a record 18%.
• Gift cards: They’re the most-wanted gift for the season: 47% of holiday shoppers want one, according to an NRF survey. In California, store gift cards can’t expire or carry most fees, and since April 1, 2026, any card with less than $15 left must be cashed out on request. Buy gift cards directly from the store or brand.

Stores or online

The big chains now tie their stores and websites together, which takes most of the pressure off Black Friday mornings. Walmart stores match the price of an identical item on Walmart.com. Best Buy and Target match their own online prices in store, and their store prices online. Target offers Order Pickup, Drive Up and same-day delivery, and Best Buy offers store pickup plus 24-hour pickup lockers at some stores.

Stores still have advantages: you can see a TV’s picture or a coat’s fit before you pay, and you avoid shipping delays near Christmas. Online is easier for comparing prices across stores and avoiding crowds. Before driving to Westfield Valley Fair, Santana Row, Oakridge or the Great Mall in Milpitas on Black Friday, check the center’s own website or app for hours; stores inside may open at different times.

Either way, the San Jose sales tax rate is 10%, so a $500 TV costs $550 at the register.

Photo: Shoppers inside Westfield Valley Fair, on the San Jose-Santa Clara line, in September 2012 Pedro Xing / Wikimedia Commons, CC0.

How to get the lowest price

Know each store’s price-match rules. They differ, and the fine print matters:

• Target: If Target’s own price drops on or before Dec. 24 on something you bought after Nov. 1, it will refund the difference if you ask within 14 days. It does not match other stores. Clearance items, bundles and many gift-card offers are excluded, and you need the receipt.
• Best Buy: Most purchases made Oct. 30 to Dec. 31 can be matched to a lower Best Buy price through Jan. 15. Best Buy normally also matches big competitors, but not for competitors’ prices from Thursday, Nov. 19, through Monday, Nov. 30, and never on marketplace sellers, Black Friday pricing or limited-quantity deals.
• Walmart: Stores match Walmart.com. Walmart.com matches nothing, not even its own later price drops.
• Every store: A match needs the identical brand, model number and color, and it must be sold by the store itself, not a third-party seller on its site.

Check price history. Free sites such as CamelCamelCamel and Keepa chart an Amazon item’s past prices and send email alerts when it drops. A “deal” that matches the item’s usual price isn’t one. Use the websites rather than their browser add-ons (see Staying safe, below). Amazon’s Alexa+ can also alert you when an item you’re watching goes on sale.

Weigh memberships honestly. Walmart+ members get 24 hours of early access to some online deals, and Best Buy’s paid Plus and Total members earn double rewards Nov. 19 to Dec. 6. A paid membership saves money only if you’d use it all year.

Be careful with buy now, pay later. Adobe expects shoppers to put a record $21.3 billion of holiday purchases on these plans, which split a purchase into a few payments. Most don’t charge interest but do charge late fees, and each purchase can be a new loan. Make sure you can cover every payment before you agree.

Pay with a credit card. Federal law limits what you owe for fraudulent credit card charges, while a debit card pulls money straight from your bank account. If a seller doesn’t deliver, you can dispute the charge with a written notice to your card company within 60 days of the statement. For a defective purchase, you can also raise a claim with the card company up to a year after the bill if the charge is over $50, you first tried to fix it with the seller, and you haven’t paid the charge in full.

Coupons and cash back

Get coupons from the store itself: its app, weekly ad and free loyalty program. Target Circle deals apply automatically at checkout once you identify yourself as a member. Stacking rules vary by offer. At Target, Target coupons and Circle Bonuses can’t be combined with a price match, but a manufacturer’s coupon can be used after an in-store match. Best Buy won’t price-match coupon offers or members-only prices.

Cash-back sites pay you part of the commission a store pays them for sending you. Cash-back and rewards partners drive 36% of affiliate shopping traffic, according to Adobe. If you use one, sign up on its website and click through from there, and treat the cash back as a bonus, not a reason to buy.

Staying safe: scams, fake texts and malware

Holiday fraud is big business. Americans reported losing more than $785 million to non-delivery and non-payment scams in 2024, and $199 million more to credit card fraud. The basics:

• Type the address yourself. Fake stores and look-alike sites are common. Go to a retailer by typing its web address or using its app, not through links in emails, texts or ads.
• Don’t trust delivery texts. The U.S. Postal Service never texts or emails a tracking update unless you asked for one with a tracking number, and those messages never contain a link. Forward scam texts to 7726 and report fake USPS messages to spam@uspis.gov.
• Never pay with gift cards, wire transfers or prepaid cards. A seller who asks for them is a scammer.
• Check new sellers. Look up an unfamiliar store before paying, and get a tracking number for every online order.
• Lock down accounts. Update your phone and computer, use a different strong password for each store, and turn on two-step sign-in where offered.
• Watch statements. Check card and bank activity through January and report anything odd right away.

Photo: Santana Row in San Jose in September 2011 Allie_Caulfield / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

Skip the shopping browser extensions

Coupon finders, price trackers and cash-back tools that install in your web browser promise savings. Our advice: don’t install them. To work, an extension must read the shopping pages you visit, and recent cases show that access being used against shoppers and the people whose links they click.

• Honey: PayPal bought the Honey coupon extension for $4 billion in 2020. YouTubers and other online creators sued PayPal in federal court in San Jose in December 2024, alleging that when shoppers clicked Honey’s checkout pop-up, it secretly swapped the creators’ referral codes for its own and took their sales commissions, even when it found no coupon, at least until December 2024. PayPal disputes the claims. On June 22, U.S. District Judge Beth Labson Freeman refused to dismiss the case, which does not decide whether the claims are true. In a similar case over RetailMeNot’s extension, a federal judge in New York dismissed computer-fraud claims in March, finding that shoppers who use an extension during checkout give it permission.
• Google’s rule change: After the Honey reports, Google tightened its Chrome Web Store rules in March 2025, with enforcement from June 10, 2025. Extensions must disclose affiliate programs, wait for the user to act, and may add a referral link only when it brings the user a real benefit, such as a discount; a coupon tool can’t add one when it finds no coupon.
• Hijacked links: In January the security firm Socket reported that a Chrome extension sold as an Amazon ad blocker quietly replaced creators’ referral codes on every Amazon product link with its own. Socket tied it to a 29-extension network aimed at Amazon, AliExpress, Best Buy, Shopify and Shein, some of which showed fake countdown timers to rush buyers.
• Hidden malware: In June, Microsoft removed 119 extensions with up to 2.6 million installs from its Edge store. They posed as ad blockers, VPNs, translators and video downloaders and worked as advertised, then days later, on some computers, downloaded hidden code that stole Google passwords and two-factor codes, collected browser cookies and hijacked shopping commissions on Amazon, eBay and AliExpress.

If you keep any extension, install it only from a well-known publisher, check what it can access before installing, and remove ones you don’t use (type chrome://extensions or edge://extensions in the address bar to see the list). If you think a bad extension was installed, remove it, change your important passwords and turn on two-step sign-in.

Returns and protections

• Amazon: Most items bought Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 can be returned through Jan. 31, 2027; Apple products through Jan. 15. Amazon can charge 20% of the price for a return dropped off late.
• Target: For purchases Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, the return clock starts Dec. 26. Most electronics are due back by Jan. 24, 2027; Apple and Beats products and phones by Jan. 8.
• Best Buy: Most purchases Oct. 30 to Dec. 31 can be returned through Jan. 15, 2027, or Jan. 31 for Plus and Total members. Holiday decorations are excluded from its holiday price guarantee.
• Everywhere: Keep receipts and ask for gift receipts. Read the return policy for anything marked final sale, open-box or clearance.

If a business won’t make things right, the Santa Clara County District Attorney’s Consumer Protection Unit mediates disputes with businesses: (408) 792-2880 or consumer@dao.sccgov.org. Report online scams to the FBI at ic3.gov.

After the holidays

• Dec. 26 to Jan. 15: If a Best Buy price drops after Christmas on something bought Oct. 30 or later, ask for the difference by Jan. 15.
• Late December: Year-end car incentives peak (see Cars, above).
• January: Book spring break flights. Return or exchange unwanted gifts before the deadlines above.
• Early February: Watch for TV sales before the Super Bowl if you skipped Black Friday.
• Through February: Check card statements. The 60-day dispute window starts with the statement that shows the charge.
• Any time: Gift cards in California don’t expire, so there’s no rush to spend them on full-price items.

Source: Adobe 2026 holiday forecast; NRF holiday forecast; Amazon, Walmart, Target and Best Buy holiday announcements; Best Buy price match policy; Target price match policy; Amazon return policy; FBI; CISA; U.S. Postal Inspection Service; In re PayPal Honey order; Chrome Web Store policy; Microsoft Edge security team.