Thanksgiving travel guide:  After Friday’s FAA ground stop, airline waivers end before Nov. 26; AAA still forecasts 81.5 million travelers

SAN JOSE — The best time to start a Thanksgiving road trip is in the morning, and the worst is the afternoon and early evening, according to AAA’s 2026 holiday forecast.  AAA expects 81.5 million Americans to travel at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday, Nov. 24, and Monday, Nov. 30.  Thanksgiving Day is Thursday, Nov. 26.

For Bay Area travelers, the busiest days follow a familiar pattern.  Traffic is heaviest Tuesday and Wednesday as people leave, and Sunday and Monday as they return, according to INRIX, the traffic data company that supplies AAA’s road forecast.  Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport (OAK) expects its busiest day to be Sunday, Nov. 29.

Those forecasts still stand after Friday’s nationwide FAA ground stop, which halted departures for more than four hours and has spilled cancellations into Saturday.  Officials have not said the disruption will last until Thanksgiving week.  Here is what happened, what airlines are offering, and what the official forecasts, airports and transit agencies say so far.

Friday’s FAA ground stop

A telecommunications failure hit the Federal Aviation Administration’s air traffic control centers at 12:36 p.m. PT Friday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said, and the agency halted departures nationwide “out of an abundance of caution.”  The FAA lifted the stop at 5:15 p.m. PT, Duffy said, after restoring “full functionality” at those centers.  The halt lasted more than four hours and included San José Mineta, San Francisco and Oakland international airports.

The flight-tracking site FlightAware counted 9,094 canceled flights and 6,992 delayed flights within, into or out of the United States on Friday, as of 12:48 a.m. PT Saturday.  At SFO it counted 513 cancellations and 407 delays, at SJC 99 cancellations and 90 delays, and at OAK 72 cancellations and 84 delays.  The disruption spilled into Saturday:  FlightAware already counted 3,118 U.S. cancellations for Saturday, including 124 at SFO, 17 at SJC and 6 at OAK.  Those are tracker counts that include flights hit by other problems, not official totals.  Neither the FAA nor the airlines had released totals.

Lifting the stop did not mean flights were back to normal.  Duffy said it will take time to resume normal operations, and the FAA has not said when they will be.  Alaska Airlines said Friday evening that it would take time to get operations “back on track through the weekend.”  American Airlines said it was “positioning the airline for the strongest possible recovery tomorrow and in the days ahead.”  JetBlue said it planned to resume flights Saturday morning and had warned of Saturday cancellations.  Early Saturday, the FAA’s status page showed no ground stop or delay program at SJC, SFO or OAK.

Oakland airport said at 5:53 p.m. Friday that the stop had been lifted and that operations were resuming, but that delays may continue and some flights may be canceled as airlines reposition planes and crews.  San José Mineta said at 5:50 p.m. that travelers should “expect delays to continue as airline operations ramp back up to normal.”  All three airports have told travelers to check with their airline before heading to the airport.

Thanksgiving Day is Thursday, Nov. 26, 13 days after the stop.  Officials have not said Friday’s halt will cancel or change Thanksgiving-week flights.  The travel waivers airlines posted for the ground stop do not extend through Thanksgiving Day, or through the Nov. 24–30 window in AAA’s forecast.

Do the airline waivers reach Thanksgiving?

No.  The waivers checked early Saturday on the airlines’ official travel-alert pages cover people booked to fly Friday or Saturday — and, for Southwest, through Monday, Nov. 16 — and let those travelers move to a later date short of the holiday.  They do not apply to people whose original trip is Thanksgiving week.

• Delta:  Tickets issued on or before Friday, Nov. 13, for travel Friday or Saturday, can be changed on or before Nov. 21, with the new departure also on or before Nov. 21, at no extra cost in the same cabin, according to Delta’s Air Traffic Control Outage advisory.  Travelers can also cancel for an eCredit.  A fare difference may apply after Nov. 21.
• United:  United’s newsroom said Friday evening that its waiver “allows customers to change their travel plans this weekend,” with disruptions expected Saturday.  Its travel-alerts page did not display a published date range that reaches Thanksgiving when checked early Saturday.
• American:  For tickets bought by Thursday, Nov. 12, and travel Friday or Saturday, American will waive the change fee for a new flight Nov. 13–17, in the same cabin, if the change is booked by Saturday, Nov. 14, according to its travel-alerts page.  The public alert lists 21 airports, including Los Angeles, Phoenix and Dallas/Fort Worth, and does not list San José, San Francisco or Oakland.  It covers travel to, from or through a listed airport.  Eligible travelers may also cancel and request a refund.
• JetBlue:  For JetBlue-operated flights Friday or Saturday, on tickets booked before Friday, JetBlue is waiving change and cancel fees and fare differences, and travelers may rebook through Wednesday, Nov. 18, according to its travel-alerts page.  The airline said it planned to resume flights Saturday morning.
• Alaska and Hawaiian:  For tickets bought by Friday for travel Friday or Saturday, the airlines’ travel advisory allows a change in the same cabin with no fare difference for new travel through Tuesday, Nov. 17.  The waiver covers tickets issued by Alaska (ticket numbers starting with 027).  Tickets bought from a third party must be changed through that seller.
• Southwest:  Southwest’s travel advisory applies to reservations for travel Friday through Monday, Nov. 16, and lets eligible customers rebook or fly standby within five days of the original date on the same route, at no change in airfare.  Even a Monday trip moved five days later would land on Saturday, Nov. 21, still before Thanksgiving.

If the airline cancels your flight or significantly changes it and you choose not to fly, federal rules require a refund to your original form of payment, even when the cause is outside the airline’s control.  Airlines are not required to pay for hotels or meals when the government grounds flights.  Those refund rules are explained more fully below.

What officials say about the air traffic system

Duffy said the stop “happened because our air traffic control system is operating on DECADES-OLD, analog equipment that simply cannot compete with the demands of the 21st century,” and he urged Congress to fund a new system.  Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said “there is nothing that indicates a cyberattack as of right now,” but that officials are “not ready to completely rule it out.”  He also called the aging system “a national security risk.”  Officials have not said which equipment failed, and they have not forecast another stop.

For trips this weekend, check your flight in the airline’s app or website before you leave, and sign up for flight-status alerts.  Check the airport pages at flysanjose.com, flysfo.com and iflyoak.com, and the FAA’s delay board at nasstatus.faa.gov.  For Thanksgiving week, the official forecasts still favor morning departures.

The big picture

AAA’s figure is down 0.1% from 81.6 million last year, or about 121,000 fewer people.  It ends a three-year streak of record Thanksgiving travel that began in 2023, AAA said.  The forecast was prepared the week of Oct. 12 with S&P Global Market Intelligence.

• By car:  72.9 million people, down from 73.1 million last year.  That is nearly 90% of all holiday travelers.  AAA said this year’s record gas prices are part of the reason for the drop.
• By air:  5.96 million people on domestic flights, down 0.2%.  AAA booking data show round-trip domestic tickets averaging $800, up 17%.
• By bus, train or cruise:  2.6 million people, up 4.1%, the only group AAA expects to grow.

Airlines for America, the trade group for the largest U.S. airlines, counts a longer window, Nov. 20 to 30.  It expects nearly 29 million passengers and names Sunday, Nov. 29, and Monday, Nov. 30, as the busiest flying days.  The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) had not posted a 2026 Thanksgiving screening forecast as of Thursday, Nov. 12.

Driving and when to leave

INRIX’s day-by-day guide, published by AAA, lists these worst and best times to drive.  Times are local, so they apply in Pacific time here:

• Tuesday, Nov. 24:  worst 2 to 8 p.m.; best before 1 p.m.
• Wednesday, Nov. 25:  worst noon to 7 p.m.; best before noon.
• Thursday, Nov. 26:  minimal traffic expected.
• Friday, Nov. 27:  worst 1 to 7 p.m.; best before noon.
• Saturday, Nov. 28:  worst noon to 9 p.m.; best before 11 a.m.
• Sunday, Nov. 29:  worst noon to 8 p.m.; best before 11 a.m.
• Monday, Nov. 30:  worst 2 to 7 p.m.

INRIX singled out one Bay Area route.  On Interstate 80 East from San Francisco to Sacramento, the main road to Tahoe and the Sierra, it expects traffic to peak around 7:15 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 24, at 85% above a typical trip.  For drivers headed to Southern California, it expects the worst traffic on southbound Interstate 5 from Bakersfield into Los Angeles around 7:15 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 28, at 121% above normal.

INRIX did not publish forecasts for Highway 101, Interstate 280, Interstate 880, Interstate 580 or Highway 99.  Caltrans’ free QuickMap shows live traffic, lane closures and chain controls on all of them.

Gas is expensive but falling.  California’s average for regular was $5.63 a gallon Thursday, according to AAA.  The San Jose metro average was $5.58, down from $6.28 a month ago but up from $4.50 a year ago.  The national average was $3.91.  AAA said the national average has never been above $4 on Thanksgiving Day.  Its highest Thanksgiving average was $3.58, in 2022.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the federal agency that tracks energy prices, found California regular averaged $5.56 a gallon in its weekly survey dated Monday, Nov. 9.  That was down 19 cents from the week before but $1.06 higher than a year earlier.  The San Francisco-area average was $5.45.  To save at the pump, AAA suggests joining gas-station loyalty programs and says its members get a per-gallon discount at Shell and Love’s stations.  AAA also advises checking tires, batteries and fluids before a long drive; it answered more than half a million roadside calls last Thanksgiving.

Renting a car?  Hertz, AAA’s car rental partner, expects the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving to be its busiest pickup days, AAA said.  At SJC, every rental company is in the Rental Car Center across from Terminal B, and Terminal A travelers can take any airport shuttle bus there.  At SFO, the free AirTrain runs 24 hours a day to the Rental Car Center.  Travelers there on domestic American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue and United flights can check their bags at the Rental Car Center from 4 a.m. to 8 p.m.; airline bag fees still apply.

The California Highway Patrol had not announced its 2026 Thanksgiving enforcement period as of Nov. 12.  Last year it ran from 6:01 p.m. the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to 11:59 p.m. Sunday.  During the 2024 holiday period, 36 people died in crashes across California, and CHP officers made more than 1,100 arrests for driving under the influence, the agency said.

Flying from SJC, SFO and OAK

Oakland (OAK) expects about 250,000 passengers from Friday, Nov. 20, through Sunday, Nov. 29, about the same as last year.  “OAK is ready to welcome holiday travelers from across the Bay Area and beyond,” said Craig Simon, the Port of Oakland’s director of aviation.  Economy Lot parking is $16 a day.  The Daily Lot is $19 a day for stays of five days or more.  Reservations carry a one-time $1.99 fee.  OAK’s Guest Pass lets people without a ticket go through security to see off or greet family at the gate.

San José Mineta (SJC) had not posted a 2026 Thanksgiving forecast as of Nov. 12.  Last year, the airport expected about 16,300 departing passengers a day and as many as 20,000 on its busiest day, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  Parking is $19 a day in Economy Lot 1, which has free shuttles to both terminals every 7 to 10 minutes, around the clock.  The Terminal A garage is $25 a day, and the Terminal B garage is $41.  SJC says a reservation guarantees a space if a lot fills.  The cell phone waiting area for pickups is free.  Alaska Airlines resumed four daily nonstop flights between SJC and Los Angeles on Nov. 1.

San Francisco (SFO) had also not posted a 2026 Thanksgiving forecast.  For comparison, SFO said it served more than 1.8 million travelers from Nov. 20 to Dec. 1, 2025, its busiest Thanksgiving on record.  SFO’s online parking booking can be changed or canceled up to two hours before the booked entry time.

SFO’s Long-Term Garage costs $4 per 30 minutes, up to $27 per 24 hours, and its Domestic Garage tops out at $41 per 24 hours, according to SFO’s parking pages.  Comparing the cheapest posted daily rates, OAK’s Economy Lot ($16) costs less than SJC’s Economy Lot 1 ($19) and SFO’s Long-Term Garage ($27).  SFO says booking online gets its lowest available rate.

OAK and SFO both advise arriving at least two hours before a domestic flight and three hours before an international one.

How to pay less for a flight

Airfares are up this year, so flexibility pays.  AAA’s travel advisors say flights that leave and return on a Tuesday or Wednesday tend to cost less than flights Friday through Sunday.  They also suggest checking airports a bit farther from home, which for San Jose travelers means comparing SJC with SFO and OAK.  Neither AAA nor Google names a single cheapest day of the week to buy a ticket.

Google Flights, Google’s free fare-search site, can track prices on a route or a specific flight and email you when the price changes a lot, according to Google’s help pages.  Its “Dates” and “Price graph” views show which travel days are cheapest, and its “Airports” section may show cheaper fares from nearby airports.  A note in its Tips section may say prices are “unlikely to drop” or “likely to increase,” based on past fare trends; Google says those predictions can be wrong.  Its “Cheapest” tab can show lower fares from online travel agents that come with trade-offs, such as moving your own bags between connecting flights.

Federal rules give you a short window to keep shopping.  If you book at least one week before departure, the airline must either hold the fare for 24 hours without payment or let you cancel within 24 hours without a penalty, under U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) rules.  DOT’s Fly-Rights consumer guide adds that if your fare drops after you buy, some airlines will refund the difference or give a credit, but only if you ask.  Most discount fares are nonrefundable, the guide warns, and changing them can cost a fee.

Getting to the airport without driving

• From SJC by bus:  VTA (the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, the county’s bus and light-rail agency) Route 60, the Airport Flyer, links both SJC terminals with Milpitas BART, the Metro/Airport light-rail station and Santa Clara Transit Center, where Caltrain, ACE and Amtrak stop, SJC says.  A VTA adult fare is $2.50, with two hours of free transfers when paid with Clipper, the Bay Area’s transit fare card.
• To SFO by train:  From San Jose Diridon, a Caltrain adult fare to Millbrae is $8.50, and BART from Millbrae to SFO is $5.85 with Clipper, according to the two agencies’ fare tables, before any transfer discount.  BART from Berryessa/North San José to SFO is $17.25 with Clipper, or $8.60 with a youth Clipper card.  SFO’s BART station is at the International Terminal, and the AirTrain to it is free.
• To OAK by BART:  $15 with Clipper from Berryessa/North San José, according to BART’s fare calculator.  The Oakland Airport station is a short walk from both terminals, BART says.  BART gates also take contactless bank cards and phone wallets; each rider 5 and older needs their own card or device.
• Rideshare and taxis:  None of the three airports posts Uber or Lyft fares.  At SJC, rideshares drop off at the departures curbs and pick up at marked Ground Transportation Island stops; at SFO, domestic pickups are on Level 5 of the Domestic Garage.  SJC taxis charge $15 for the first mile, $4 for each added mile and $1 a minute of waiting, the airport says.  San Francisco taxis leaving SFO include a $6 exit surcharge, and SFO says up to five people can share a cab for the price of one.

ID and security rules

Adults 18 and older need a REAL ID, a passport or another TSA-approved ID to fly within the U.S.  A REAL ID-compliant license has a star on it, TSA says.  Travelers without one can pay a $45 TSA ConfirmID fee on Pay.gov before the trip.  The fee covers 10 days of travel, and TSA says it cannot promise to verify every traveler’s identity.

Liquids, gels, creams and pastes in carry-on bags must be 3.4 ounces or less and fit in one quart-size bag.  Larger jars and containers of gravy, sauces or other spreadable foods belong in checked bags.  Pies and cakes are allowed in carry-on and checked bags, though officers may ask travelers to take them out for screening.  Questions can be texted to AskTSA at 275-872.

TSA PreCheck, the agency’s trusted-traveler program, costs $85 or less for five years; its three enrollment companies charge $79.75 to $85.  TSA says about 99% of PreCheck travelers wait less than 10 minutes, and children 17 and under can join an adult in the lane for free.  Enrolling requires a short in-person visit for fingerprints and a photo.  TSA’s free MyTSA app shows how busy an airport is likely to be at your travel time, based on past data, along with airport delay information.

Trains and transit

• Caltrain:  weekend schedule on Thanksgiving Day and a modified schedule Friday, Nov. 27.  Caltrain says modified timetables come out a few weeks before the holiday.  Concrete and floor repairs at San Jose Diridon Station continue through December, with delays of up to five minutes and changing track assignments.  An adult one-way fare from San Jose Diridon to San Francisco is $10.75 (four zones), and a four-zone day pass is $21.50.  Youth ride for $1 a trip.
• BART:  Sunday service, 8 a.m. to midnight, on Thanksgiving Day.  This weekend, Nov. 14 and 15, free buses replace Green Line trains between 24th Street Mission and Daly City for train-control work.
• Capitol Corridor (Amtrak):  weekend and holiday schedule Nov. 26 and 27 between San Jose, Oakland and Sacramento.  Riders may bring two carry-on bags and one personal item; there is no checked baggage.  The line says trains are especially crowded Thanksgiving week and advises buying tickets ahead.  Under fares that took effect Sept. 1, a one-way ticket from San Jose Diridon is $41 to Sacramento and $17 to Oakland Jack London Square, or $39 and $15 when paid by tapping a contactless card through its Tap2Ride option, according to its fare tables.

Weather

It is too early for an official Thanksgiving week forecast.  The National Weather Service’s Bay Area office said Thursday that rain returns Friday, Nov. 13, with more storms expected Sunday into Monday and again midweek.  Check weather.gov/sanfrancisco and Caltrans’ QuickMap before leaving, especially for mountain routes.

If your flight is canceled or delayed

The ground-stop waivers above apply only to people already booked this weekend; they do not cover a Thanksgiving-week ticket.  Separate from those waivers, federal rules spell out when you get your money back.  An airline must give a full refund, including taxes and fees such as bag or seat charges, if it cancels your flight or significantly changes it and you choose not to fly or not to take a voucher, according to DOT’s refund rules in the Code of Federal Regulations.  A significant change includes a domestic flight leaving three or more hours earlier or arriving three or more hours later than scheduled, a switch to a different airport, or added connections.

The refund must go back to your original form of payment, within seven business days for credit cards and 20 days for other payments.  An airline cannot treat you as accepting a voucher or travel credit instead of cash unless you agree to it.  DOT’s Airline Cancellation and Delay Dashboard lists the commitments each airline makes when it causes a cancellation or significant delay.  DOT’s Fly-Rights guide suggests asking whether your ticket will be honored on another airline at no extra charge, and whether the airline will pay for meals or a hotel during a long wait.

What it means

Fewer people are expected to travel than last year, but the roads and airports will still be crowded, and trips will cost more.  Friday’s FAA ground stop is over, but cancellations have spilled into Saturday, and airlines say recovery will take time.  Officials have not said the disruption will last until Thanksgiving week, and none of the waivers posted for the stop extend through Nov. 26.  Flying costs more than last year, and California gas costs nearly $1 a gallon more than a year ago.  For most Bay Area travelers, the biggest remaining choices are timing and parking.  Leaving in the morning, avoiding the Sunday and Monday return rush, and booking airport parking ahead are the steps the official forecasts support.  If a flight is later canceled or significantly changed, federal rules still require a cash refund if you choose not to fly.

What you can do

• If you were booked to fly Friday or Saturday:  Check your airline’s waiver now.  None extend to Thanksgiving Day.  American’s changes must be booked by Saturday, Nov. 14.
• Check flight status before you go.  Use the airline’s app or website, and turn on flight-status alerts.
• Check the airport and FAA pages.  flysanjose.com, flysfo.com, iflyoak.com, and nasstatus.faa.gov.
• Leave early in the day.  Drive before noon Wednesday, before 1 p.m. Tuesday, or before 11 a.m. on the weekend.
• Avoid the peaks.  INRIX expects minimal traffic on Thanksgiving Day.  Airlines expect Sunday, Nov. 29, and Monday, Nov. 30, to be the busiest flying days.
• Compare the three airports.  Check SJC, SFO and OAK fares and parking; OAK’s Economy Lot has the lowest posted daily rate, and SJC, SFO and OAK all sell guaranteed spaces online.
• Track fares.  Set a price alert on Google Flights and look at Tuesday and Wednesday flights, which AAA says tend to cost less.
• Use the 24-hour rule.  Book at least a week out, and you can hold or cancel within 24 hours without a penalty.
• Take transit to the airport.  VTA Route 60 serves SJC for $2.50; Caltrain plus BART reaches SFO for $14.35 from Diridon.
• Arrive two hours early for domestic flights and three for international flights.
• Check your ID.  Look for the star on your license, or bring a passport.
• Pack food smart.  Put gravy, sauces and jars over 3.4 ounces in checked bags.
• Check the train schedule.  Caltrain, BART and Capitol Corridor run holiday schedules Nov. 26, and Caltrain and Capitol Corridor also change service Nov. 27.
• Check road and weather conditions on Caltrans QuickMap and weather.gov before you go.  Buckle up and plan a sober ride.
• Know your refund rights.  If the airline cancels or delays your flight three hours or more and you don’t fly, ask for cash, not a voucher.

Source:  AAA 2026 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast, AAA California gas prices, EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport, Nov. 10, 2026, SJC parking, SJC public transit, SFO parking, SFO, Dec. 2, 2025, Google Flights help, DOT refund rules, 14 CFR Part 260, DOT Fly-Rights, TSA REAL ID, TSA ConfirmID and TSA PreCheck, VTA fares, Caltrain fares and holiday service, BART fare calculator and holiday schedule, Capitol Corridor fare tables and holiday service, and National Weather Service Bay Area forecast discussion, checked Nov. 12, 2026;  and, checked early Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026:  Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on X, 6:15 p.m. PT Friday, Duffy on X, 6:25 p.m. PT, FAA on X, 2:02 p.m. PT, FlightAware cancellation and delay counts for Friday and Saturday, 12:48 a.m. PT Saturday, FAA National Airspace System status, Delta Air Traffic Control Outage advisory, United Airlines statement on the FAA ground stop, American Airlines travel alerts, JetBlue travel alerts, Alaska and Hawaiian travel advisories, Alaska Airlines statement on the FAA ground stop, Southwest travel advisory, Oakland airport update, 5:53 p.m. PT Friday, San José Mineta International Airport on X, 5:50 p.m. PT Friday, White House Rapid Response post of Secretary Mullin’s briefing remarks, and Homeland Security clip of Mullin on air traffic control modernization.