Leonid meteors peak early Tuesday; forecast shows mostly clear, moonless San Jose skies, but expect only a few an hour

The Leonid meteor shower peaks early next week, and San Jose's best chance to see it is the dark hours before dawn Tuesday, Nov. 17, in a dry gap between weekend rain and more rain due Tuesday night. The latest National Weather Service forecast calls for mostly clear skies then. It is a modest shower this year: under a truly dark sky, expect roughly a dozen meteors an hour at best, and far fewer from inside the city.

When and where to look

Go out between about 3 a.m. and 5:15 a.m. Tuesday.  The Leonids appear to fly out of the constellation Leo, which rises in the east around midnight and climbs to about halfway up the sky by 4 a.m. and nearly two-thirds of the way up by 5 a.m.  The higher that point, the more meteors reach your part of the sky.  After about 5:15 a.m., early twilight starts washing out the fainter ones.

The Moon will not get in the way.  It is a 44% lit crescent that sets at 11:19 p.m. Monday, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory, so the sky is moonless all morning.

You don't need to stare at Leo.  Meteors can appear anywhere; lie back, face east or straight up, and give your eyes time to adjust to the dark without checking a phone.

What causes it

Meteors are specks of comet dust burning up as they slam into Earth's air.  The Leonids come from Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, which is next closest to the Sun on May 20, 2031, the International Meteor Organization says.  Leonids hit the atmosphere at about 71 kilometers a second, roughly 44 miles a second or 159,000 mph.

How many you'll really see

The meteor organization's 2026 calendar predicts a peak rate of about 15 an hour.  That figure assumes a perfectly dark sky with Leo straight overhead, which never happens.  Its main peak is forecast for 3:45 p.m. Tuesday, Pacific time, in daylight here; one model also predicts a weak burst from an old dust trail at 2:33 a.m. Tuesday, Pacific time, which falls in San Jose's window.

Our estimate, using the organization's standard formula, is about 12 an hour around 4 a.m. from a truly dark site, about three an hour from a typical suburban backyard and about one an hour under city lights.  For comparison, the Taurids, a slower shower active all month, top out at about five an hour under ideal conditions, and a few random meteors cross the sky on any clear night.  So even a good Leonid morning is only a few more meteors than usual.

No outburst is forecast this year:  the meteor organization says the dust trails Earth crosses this week are too thin for a significant one.

Weather

The National Weather Service's San Jose forecast, updated Friday morning, calls for rain Sunday and Sunday night, so the predawn hours of Monday look poor. Monday night should be partly cloudy with a low around 40. The service's hour-by-hour forecast puts cloud cover at about 28% from 10 p.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Tuesday and about 18% from 4 to 10 a.m., so the best viewing hours should be mostly clear. Rain returns after 10 p.m. Tuesday and continues Wednesday, so Wednesday morning, the other possible night, looks poor. Forecasts four days out can change; check again Monday evening.

Is it worth it?

For most people in San Jose, honestly, no:  one or two meteors an hour from a lit neighborhood is not worth an alarm on a cold morning.  It is worth it if you're up early anyway, or if you can get to a dark spot well away from city lights, dress warmly and give it an hour.

Source:  International Meteor Organization, 2026 Meteor Shower Calendar (ed. Jürgen Rendtel); American Meteor Society, 2026 meteor shower list; U.S. Naval Observatory, Sun and Moon data for San Jose, Nov. 16–17; National Weather Service, San Jose forecast and hourly sky-cover forecast, updated Nov. 13.  Leo's height in the sky, twilight time, the expected hourly counts and the miles-per-second conversion are the Daily News's own arithmetic.  Drafted by AI for San Jose.